{"id":2449,"date":"2024-04-10T20:08:42","date_gmt":"2024-04-10T20:08:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/?p=2449"},"modified":"2025-03-11T13:45:03","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T13:45:03","slug":"civil-war-movie-reactions-can-it-happen-in-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/2024\/04\/10\/civil-war-movie-reactions-can-it-happen-in-america\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Civil War&#8221; Movie Reactions: &#8220;Can That Really Happen in America?&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The movie <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Civil War<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, being released April 12th, depicts a civil war in America taking place in the not-so-distant future. The movie has people talking about how likely such a terrifying scenario actually is.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you haven\u2019t yet seen the trailer, here it is:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cA4wVhs3HC0?si=laR0cclA3g-ivexn\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3><b>How likely is a civil war?\u00a0<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fears of civil war in America didn\u2019t start with this movie. Extreme polarization has had this idea floating around the zeitgeist for a while now. Many people say such a thing is possible \u2014 <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">even likely<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Stephen Marche\u2019s book <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has the following <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kirkusreviews.com\/book-reviews\/stephen-marche\/the-next-civil-war-marche\/?page=17\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">publisher\u2019s description<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12pt;\">The United States is coming to an end. The only question is how.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12pt;\">As Toronto-based novelist and culture writer Marche observes, the U.S. is riven by sectarian conflict that cannot help but end, at some point, in violence. By his projections, the inevitable civil war will be uncommonly vicious, pitting neighbor against neighbor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%22civil%20war%22%20%22america%22&amp;src=typed_query\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">search for \u201ccivil war\u201d on social media<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, you\u2019ll find many people who think a civil war is either possible or likely. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2451\" src=\"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2024-04-10-at-8.18.36-AM-3-800x211.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"132\" srcset=\"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2024-04-10-at-8.18.36-AM-3-800x211.jpg 800w, https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2024-04-10-at-8.18.36-AM-3-768x202.jpg 768w, https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2024-04-10-at-8.18.36-AM-3.jpg 1352w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/today.yougov.com\/politics\/articles\/43553-two-in-five-americans-civil-war-somewhat-likely\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2022 survey<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> found that 40% of Americans thought a civil war was \u201cat least somewhat likely\u201d in the next ten years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>\u201cA full-scale civil war is pretty remote.\u201d<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If we\u2019re serious about understanding the likelihood of a civil war, we should listen to people knowledgeable about political violence and how countries\u2019 internal rifts tend to play out.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zeitzoff.com\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas Zeitzoff<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> specializes in political violence and extremism. We asked him for his thoughts on the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Civil War<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> trailer:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12pt;\">A full-scale civil war is pretty remote. Between civil war and peaceful coexistence, there\u2019s a large swath of outcomes. I think the more realistic worries for U.S. democracy are the legalese maneuverings that use the law and politics to break democracy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A major reason people think a civil war is likely is due to surveys that seem to suggest that many Americans are willing to engage in political violence. <\/span><b>Some analysis has estimated that as many as <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2116870119\"><b><i>40%<\/i><\/b><\/a><b><i> of Americans support political violence<\/i><\/b><b>!\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2116870119\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2022 research by Sean J. Westwood<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and colleagues found that such estimates were <\/span><b>vastly overstated<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. In <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/prlpublic.s3.amazonaws.com\/reports\/January2024.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">a 2024 report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> summarizing their research, they wrote, <\/span><b>\u201cFewer than 4% of Americans support violent crimes like assault or arson against political opponents, with minimal difference between Democrats (3.5%) and Republicans (3.8%).\u201d\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/democracyfund.org\/idea\/democracy-hypocrisy\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2024 paper<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by another academic team supported this lower estimate \u2014 they found that the number was somewhere around 3%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Three percent is admittedly a lot of people in a country of 330 million, but much less scary than <\/span><b>FORTY PERCENT<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Stronger than many suggest<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We asked political violence researcher Sean J. Westwood for his thoughts on people\u2019s fears of widespread violence:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Americans are increasingly divided along partisan lines, but it\u2019s important to recognize that we have no evidence for substantial support for partisan violence among either party in the general public.<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are factions outside of general society who support partisan violence, but they haven\u2019t polluted the minds of typical Americans.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12pt;\">There are deep cracks in American democratic life, but our democratic foundation is stronger than many in the media and academia suggest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas Zeitzoff has written about the dangers of pundits claiming we\u2019re headed toward a civil war. He argues America doesn\u2019t exhibit the factors that scholars associate with the onset of full-scale civil war.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Zeitzoff also says that thinking something will come true can make it more likely to come true. In <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zeitzoff\/status\/1478465891616673798\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">a social media post<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in 2022, Zeitzoff wrote, \u201cLike a bank run, repeatedly saying that we\u2019re headed towards a civil war, can be a self-fulfilling prophecy (increasing the risk for violence).\u201d Overly pessimistic narratives can result in a feedback loop of fear, hysteria, and aggression \u2014 which can help create the very things we\u2019re scared of.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Zeitzoff encourages academics to offer \u201csober analysis backed by evidence\u201d and to \u201cnot indulge in sensationalist claims that we are likely headed towards a new civil war.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Political scientist Josh Kertzer has also criticized those who speak like a civil war is likely. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jkertzer\/status\/1478118881201901568\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kertzer wrote<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, \u201cI know a lot of civil war scholars, and\u2026 very few of them think the United States is on the precipice of a civil war.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>What does the director say?\u00a0<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alex Garland, the director of <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Civil War<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, has said that the movie isn\u2019t meant to make a specific statement about American politics. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hollywoodreporter.com\/movies\/movie-news\/alex-garland-civil-war-release-timing-1235852725\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He\u2019s explained<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the movie contains a message about extreme divisiveness and our insistence on \u201ctalking and not listening\u201d:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Garland rather passionately pointed out that <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Civil War<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is trying to create a conversation about political divisiveness in general that vilifies the other side; ratcheting up rhetoric into an ethical debate which makes it easier to see others as evil \u2014 and once somebody is considered morally wrong, their opponents can justify all sorts of extreme measures to stop them.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-size: 12pt;\">\u201cWhy are we talking and not listening?\u201d he asked. \u201cWe\u2019ve lost trust in the media and politicians. And some in the media are wonderful and some politicians are wonderful \u2014 on both sides of the divide. I have a political position and I have good friends on the other side of that political divide. Honestly, I\u2019m not trying to be cute: What\u2019s so hard about that? Why are we shutting [conversation] down?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Fears are understandable<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">America has <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/2023\/11\/07\/why-is-polarization-a-problem-isnt-it-normal-for-us-to-strongly-disagree\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">a major toxic polarization problem<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Understandably, people are concerned about how bad things might get. But we can think about worst-case scenarios <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">without speaking as if those scenarios are certain or likely<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. We can discuss our concerns while seeing the downsides to being overly pessimistic and highly certain.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The future is, of course, unknown. We don\u2019t know how our divides will play out. A <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/32391408\/#:~:text=We%20describe%20two%20possible%20futures,apex%20of%20its%20pendulum%20swing.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2020 paper on polarization<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> put it this way: \u201cOn one hand, polarization may be on a self-reinforcing upward trajectory\u2026 on the other hand it may have recently reached the apex of its pendulum swing.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our future depends on what all of us do together. We all play a role in building a less toxic and more stable America. We can demand less contemptuous and polarizing behaviors from leaders, activists, and people in the media. We can strive to disagree with our political opponents in better, healthier ways.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you\u2019re concerned about our divides and where they may lead, we hope you see the importance of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/join\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">joining the movement<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to overcome our toxic divides.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Want to keep up to date about our work and this movement? <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/join\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sign up for our newsletter<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The movie Civil War, being released April 12th, depicts a civil war in America taking place in the not-so-distant future. The movie has people talking about how likely such a terrifying scenario actually is.\u00a0 If you haven\u2019t yet seen the trailer, here it is:\u00a0 How likely is a civil war?\u00a0 Fears of civil war in&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":2448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"collection_feed":[],"type_feed":[83],"class_list":["post-2449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Civil War&quot; Movie Reactions: &quot;Can That Really Happen in America?&quot; - Builders<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/2024\/04\/10\/civil-war-movie-reactions-can-it-happen-in-america\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"&quot;Civil War&quot; Movie Reactions: &quot;Can That Really Happen in America?&quot; - Builders\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The movie Civil War, being released April 12th, depicts a civil war in America taking place in the not-so-distant future. 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