{"id":2552,"date":"2024-06-12T22:37:01","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T22:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/?p=2552"},"modified":"2025-03-11T13:39:07","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T13:39:07","slug":"misleading-survey-results-amplify-animosity-fear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/2024\/06\/12\/misleading-survey-results-amplify-animosity-fear\/","title":{"rendered":"Misleading Survey Results Can Amplify Animosity and Fear"},"content":{"rendered":"

Survey results can be surprising \u2014 sometimes even shocking.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For example, in 2022, <\/span>a Pew Research survey<\/span><\/a> found that <\/span>12% of adults aged 18-to-30 were licensed to operate a class SSGN nuclear submarine<\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Obviously that result isn\u2019t accurate. The actual number is effectively 0%. Pew conducted that survey to show how distorted the results of online opt-in surveys can be \u2014 <\/span>especially when surveying young people<\/span><\/i>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Our nation\u2019s youth operating nuclear subs might be a funny (or scary?) idea \u2014 but there\u2019s a serious message here. <\/span>People often believe faulty survey results<\/span><\/i> \u2014 especially when those results align with their existing beliefs. When we believe and share false information related to our divides, we can ramp up our own fears and animosity \u2014 and other people\u2019s. <\/span>Believing bad information can make us unintentional amplifiers of toxic polarization.<\/span><\/i>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

We should have a healthy skepticism about survey results and other information we encounter. When you see a survey result that riles you up, ask yourself, \u201cIs it possible this is wrong?\u201d You should take the time to look into it further \u2014 just as you should avoid taking headlines at face value.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

An inaccurate survey on Holocaust denial<\/h3>\n

Let\u2019s take another example: a recent Economist\/YouGov survey found that 20% of 18-to-30 year-olds believe \u201cthe Holocaust is a myth.\u201d That result was understandably quite concerning; it received a <\/span>lot<\/span><\/a> of<\/span><\/a> attention<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Like the submarine survey, this was an online, opt-in format. When Pew tried to replicate this result with a mailed survey, which is more reliable than opt-in, they got 3% instead of 20% \u2014 a percentage consistent across all ages. Pew\u2019s work led to some news outlets adding a clarification to their coverage of the first survey (for example, see <\/span>The Economist\u2019s note<\/span><\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Holocaust denial is a serious, concerning issue at any level. But an exaggerated view of that problem can lead to unnecessary fear and anxiety, amplifying tensions. As <\/span>Pew Research put it<\/span><\/a>: \u201c\u2026reporting on complex and sensitive matters such as these requires the use of rigorous survey methods to avoid inadvertently misleading the public, particularly when studying the attitudes of young people.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Distorted views on support for political violence<\/h3>\n

In <\/span>a recent piece of ours<\/span><\/a>, we examined surveys that dramatically exaggerate Americans\u2019 support for political violence. Some estimates for such support have been <\/span>as high as 40%<\/span><\/a>!\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In <\/span>a 2024 report by Sean Westwood<\/span><\/a>, director of the Polarization Research Lab, and his team, they wrote, \u201cFewer than 4% of Americans support violent crimes like assault or arson against political opponents, with minimal difference between Democrats (3.5%) and Republicans (3.8%).\u201d Via email correspondence with Westwood, he told us, \u201cDemocrats and Republicans think support for violence is about 20 times larger than it is. It\u2019s hard not to see panic-narratives driving these incorrect views.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Survey bias and inaccuracy can result from leading language. For example, a <\/span>2023 PRRI survey<\/span><\/a> asked respondents if they agreed that \u201cbecause things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The results found that substantially more Republicans (33%) than Democrats (13%) agreed with that statement. But one can see how the \u201cpatriot\u201d language may have skewed responses, with conservatives being more likely to respond to that framing. We asked Westwood for his thoughts and he said, \u201cI agree that \u2018patriots\u2019 may have biased the results.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Again, we can be concerned about political violence (3% is still a lot of Americans!) while also seeing the importance of not overstating that problem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Many factors can lead to distorted results<\/h3>\n

In his 2024 piece <\/span>\u201cWhy polling is so often wrong,\u201d<\/span><\/a> James Rosen examined multiple reasons for inaccurate poll results. (His focus was on election-prediction polls but the factors apply to surveys in general.) <\/span>One factor is the drive to get clicks:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The internet, with its voracious appetite and greatly expanded space for new information no matter how incremental, has made some political journalists less discriminating and fueled more questionable polling. The financial pressures on news organizations have increased the need for digital readers, which has led to election articles that are little more than click-bait.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also, our societal volatility can make it hard to get an accurate view of what people think:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Especially in our volatile political climate, pollsters no longer can use past voting habits to predict future turnout. Barack Obama rode to victory in 2008 largely thanks to new voters casting ballots. Similarly, eight years later, Trump surprised pollsters by persuading many who had sat on the sidelines to support him.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toxic polarization creates a turbulent system. New, polarizing issues that arise quickly (for example, COVID-19) can shift people\u2019s views in rapid, unpredictable ways.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polling as a form of partisan venting<\/h3>\n

\u201c<\/span>Expressive responding<\/span><\/a>\u201d refers to survey takers venting their emotions in ways that don\u2019t reflect their true beliefs. The toxicity of our political divides lead to many people who have a desire to express their animosity toward their political opponents.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s imagine that some percentage of survey-takers who said that <\/span>\u201cthe 2016 election results were illegitimate\u201d<\/span><\/a> or <\/span>\u201cthe 2020 election results were illegitimate\u201d<\/span><\/a> did so <\/span>not<\/span><\/i> because they were certain in those beliefs, but partly as a way to express their high distrust of the \u201cother side.\u201d Those survey results would lead to people on the \u201cother side\u201d being more anxious and upset, which would lead <\/span>them<\/span><\/i> to say more polarizing things, and so on. Survey results can be one of the many factors involved in the feedback cycle of toxic polarization.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

We must aim for accuracy and avoid fanning the flames<\/h3>\n

To reduce the toxicity of our divides, we must embrace a healthy skepticism of survey results \u2014 especially those directly related to divisive issues. When you see people discussing survey results that are unusually shocking or scary, make it a habit to find the actual survey and dig deeper. You can look at the specific questions asked and consider how you would have answered them. You can think about what factors might have influenced people to answer one way or the other. Then, consider whether the headline that led you to the survey accurately describes its results.<\/span><\/p>\n

You can also educate others when you think they\u2019re believing or sharing false information. Remember that people may see criticism of their <\/span>information <\/span><\/i>as a criticism of their <\/span>concerns<\/span><\/i>, and this may make them angry. Be persuasive and empathetic by making it clear you\u2019re not dismissing their concerns. Point out that basing their concerns on faulty information can be self-defeating, reducing their credibility in a boy-who-cried-wolf type of way.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Want to stay in the loop on overcoming our toxic divides? <\/span><\/i>Sign up for our newsletter<\/span><\/i><\/a>.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Survey results can be surprising \u2014 sometimes even shocking.\u00a0 For example, in 2022, a Pew Research survey found that 12% of adults aged 18-to-30 were licensed to operate a class SSGN nuclear submarine.\u00a0 Obviously that result isn\u2019t accurate. The actual number is effectively 0%. Pew conducted that survey to show how distorted the results of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":2553,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"collection_feed":[],"type_feed":[77],"class_list":["post-2552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMisleading Survey Results Can Amplify Animosity and Fear - Builders<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/2024\/06\/12\/misleading-survey-results-amplify-animosity-fear\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Misleading Survey Results Can Amplify Animosity and Fear - Builders\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Survey results can be surprising \u2014 sometimes even shocking.\u00a0 For example, in 2022, a Pew Research survey found that 12% of adults aged 18-to-30 were licensed to operate a class SSGN nuclear submarine.\u00a0 Obviously that result isn\u2019t accurate. 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