{"id":46604,"date":"2026-02-09T20:07:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T20:07:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/?p=46604"},"modified":"2026-02-09T20:09:44","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T20:09:44","slug":"primary-elections-101-how-to-actually-make-a-difference-in-texas-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buildersmovement.org\/2026\/02\/09\/primary-elections-101-how-to-actually-make-a-difference-in-texas-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"Primary Elections 101: How to Actually Make a Difference in Texas Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>The Real Election in Texas Often Happens in March, Not November<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In Texas, most legislative races are already decided before November even arrives. The primary election in March is where your actual representative gets chosen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Due to gerrymandering and partisan sorting, the vast majority of Texas districts are &#8220;locked-in&#8221; for one party, meaning whichever candidate wins that party&#8217;s primary in March will almost certainly win in November.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But here&#8217;s the kicker: during that same cycle, only 17% of eligible voters <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.texasstandard.org\/stories\/texas-election-voting-turnout-primaries-governor-congress-senate-republican-democrat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">participated in the primaries<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, meaning a tiny, usually ideologically extreme slice of the electorate is choosing representatives for everyone.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you&#8217;ve ever wondered why Texas politics feels more polarized than actual Texans, this is why. The primaries are where extremism gets locked in, moderates get squeezed out, and Builders sit on the sidelines wondering why nothing ever changes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>What Is a \u201cLocked-In\u201d District?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A \u201clocked-in\u201d (or \u201csafe\u201d) district is one where historical voting patterns and district boundaries heavily favor one party. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/ratings\/house-race-ratings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Analysts track this<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> by looking at past election results, voter registration data, and partisan voting indexes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Texas has many such districts, largely due to long-term geographic sorting and aggressive redistricting after the 2020 census. According to election analysts and nonpartisan trackers, the majority of Texas congressional districts are not competitive in general elections.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That means if the district leans overwhelmingly Republican, the GOP primary winner is very likely to win in November. If the district leans overwhelmingly Democratic, the Democratic primary winner is very likely to win in November. Republicans hold large majorities in rural and suburban districts while Democrats hold urban districts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">So while November feels like the \u201cmain event,\u201d March is often where the real choice is made.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Where the Primary Is the Real Election<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><b>Republican-Dominant Districts<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In many North and East Texas districts, Republican candidates routinely win general elections by double-digit margins. GOP nominees are very likely to win in November, making the March GOP primary the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">de facto election.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-2, Houston Metro (NE &amp; SE): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Currently held by Dan Crenshaw, who won in 2024 by 31 points.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-3,<\/b> <b>North Dallas Suburbs\/Rural Northeast<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Held by Keith Self. While redistricting added five new rural counties, it is rated &#8220;Solid Republican&#8221;.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-4, <\/b><b>NE Texas\/Dallas Suburbs<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Held by Pat Fallon, who won his 2024 race by 37 points.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-6,<\/b> <b>SE of Dallas\/Fort Worth<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Held by Jake Ellzey, who won in 2024 by 31 points.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-12,<\/b> <b>West Tarrant\/Parker Counties<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Redrawn in 2025 to be even more conservative; it backed Donald Trump by 24 points in 2024 and is considered out of reach for Democrats.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-13, <\/b><b>Panhandle &amp; North Texas<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Consistently rated as a solid Republican stronghold.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-14,<\/b> <b>Upper Gulf Coast<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Traditionally very safe Republican territory.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-17, <\/b><b>Central\/East Texas<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Consistently rated as a solid Republican stronghold.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-19,<\/b> <b>South Plains\/West Texas<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Consistently rated as a solid Republican stronghold.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-24,<\/b> <b>Mid-Cities (Dallas\/Fort Worth)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Held by Beth Van Duyne. Despite being a suburban Dallas district, it is rated &#8220;Solid Republican&#8221; or &#8220;Safe Republican&#8221; for 2026.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-25, <\/b><b>North Central\/West of DFW<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: Consistently rated as a solid Republican stronghold.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In districts like these, voters who sit out the primary are effectively letting a much smaller, more ideologically intense group choose the representative for everyone.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Democratic-Dominant Districts<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That dynamic also exists on the Democratic side:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-7, Houston (West\/SW):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Includes wealthy and diverse areas of West Houston, Bellaire, and parts of Fort Bend County.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-16, El Paso:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Centered on the city of El Paso and the surrounding border communities.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-18, Houston (Central\/North):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> A historic stronghold including downtown, Third Ward, and the Heights. It is currently vacant following the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner, with a runoff set for January 31, 2026.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-20, San Antonio (West\/Central): <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Anchored by downtown and western San Antonio.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-29, Houston (East):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> A heavily Latino district covering East Houston, Pasadena, and Galena Park.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-30, South Dallas:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Includes parts of downtown Dallas and southern Dallas County, represented by Jasmine Crockett.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-33, Dallas\/Tarrant County:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> A diverse district covering parts of Fort Worth and Dallas; redrawn in 2025 to consolidate Democratic voters from surrounding areas.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>TX-37: Austin (Central\/West):<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Centered on downtown Austin and the University of Texas campus, held by Lloyd Doggett.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The same thing happens in these districts. When one party is guaranteed to win, the only meaningful choice happens inside that party\u2019s primary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>What about State Legislature Races?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In Texas\u2019 State Legislature races, partisan lean is even more entrenched. Because of this, state legislative primaries shape the November makeup more than the general election itself.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">To see whether you live in a \u201csafe Democrat\u201d or \u201csafe Republican\u201d district for the Texas State Legislature race, visit Ballotpedia (link for <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Texas_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Texas House<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, link for <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Texas_State_Senate_elections,_2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Texas State Senate<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">), click on your district, and scroll to see past election results. A district is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brennancenter.org\/our-work\/analysis-opinion\/how-gerrymandering-and-fair-maps-affected-battle-house\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">generally considered &#8220;safe&#8221;<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> for a party if they have won by a margin of 10 to 12 percentage points or more in recent elections.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If your district is \u201csafe\u201d for either party, you can be confident that the primary election is likely where your vote actually matters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Why This Fuels Polarization<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Texas primaries have <\/span><b>abysmally<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> low turnout compared to general elections, and that changes <\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">everything about who wins and how they govern.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When only 15-20% of eligible voters show up in March, candidates don&#8217;t build broad coalitions. They cater to the most committed, ideological, and predictable slice of the electorate (known as <\/span><b>high-propensity voters<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">) because those are the only people who reliably vote. Moderates, independents, and casual voters stay home, which means their preferences don&#8217;t matter. A candidate can win a primary with support from just 8-10% of all eligible voters in a district, and that&#8217;s exactly what happens.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The result is representatives who reflect the extremes of their party (whether that&#8217;s the furthest left in deep blue districts or the furthest right in deep red ones) rather than what most people in that district actually want.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Low turnout rewards ideological purity over pragmatism, and until Builders start showing up in primaries, the extremes will keep picking everyone&#8217;s representatives.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Make a Plan to Vote in the Texas Primaries<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The best thing you can do is make a plan to vote in the Texas primaries on March 3.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Start by confirming your voter registration status on the Texas Secretary of State\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/goelect.txelections.civixapps.com\/ivis-mvp-ui\/#\/login\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">website<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Decide which party\u2019s primary you plan to vote in. Texas has open primaries, meaning you can choose which party\u2019s primary you want to vote in on election day without registering with that party in advance, but you can only participate in one.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Check out your party\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/apps.texastribune.org\/features\/2026\/texas-march-2026-primary-ballot\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">sample ballot<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> ahead of time so you\u2019re not making decisions in the booth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Then choose how you\u2019ll vote. Primary Election Day is March 3. Early voting begins on February 17 and ends on February 27. You can also <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sos.texas.gov\/elections\/voter\/reqabbm.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">apply for a ballot by mail<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> now, but the election office must receive it by 7 p.m. on Election Day, March 3 (you have until 5 p.m. March 4 if it\u2019s postmarked by 7 p.m. on Election Day).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Texas primaries aren\u2019t a warm-up act. In many districts, they <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">are<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> the election.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If we want representatives who reflect more than the loudest voices, the path runs through education, participation, and showing up when the real decision is being made.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">March doesn\u2019t get the drama of November. But in Texas, it often holds the power.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u2014Alex Buscemi (<a href=\"mailto:abuscemi@buildersmovement.org\">abuscemi@buildersmovement.org<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><em>Art by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/matthew-lewis-75b58519b\/\">Matthew Lewis<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Real Election in Texas Often Happens in March, Not November In Texas, most legislative races are already decided before November even arrives. The primary election in March is where your actual representative gets chosen.\u00a0 Due to gerrymandering and partisan sorting, the vast majority of Texas districts are &#8220;locked-in&#8221; for one party, meaning whichever candidate&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":46605,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"collection_feed":[125],"type_feed":[77],"class_list":["post-46604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Primary Elections 101: How to Actually Make a Difference in Texas Politics - Builders<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In many Texas districts, the real election happens in March. 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